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In 2016, the experts misjudged the British people’s decision to leave the European Union and then Donald Trump’s chances of becoming the US President. Now, in defiance of consecutive opinion polls which all pointed to a Bill Shorten led Labor victory, our 2019 election has been hailed as one of the greatest come-from-behind victories in Australian political history.
We now know that Scott Morrison, or ScoMo as they call him, may have lost the campaign, but he’s won the Election and with that, the right to remain Australia’s 30th Prime Minister. A couple of days on, here’s a list of some of the winners and losers from the past weekend’s election.
Soon after 11:30 pm on election day, Bill Shorten rang Scott Morrison to concede victory. In the days leading up to the election, Scott Morrison remained defiantly optimistic that victory was still achievable, exploiting the idea that he was more popular than Bill Shorten amongst the Australian people.
Refunds of unused franking credits are safe! This major issue of reform hailed by some as a ‘retirement tax’ was hotly targeted by Bill Shorten and his Labor Party. In the end, this may have proven too much for many voters to accept, especially those who rely on an annual refund to partially fund their retirement. On election day, many Australian’s appear to have used their vote to protect their imputation credits, possibly even some long term Labor supporters.
Expect a rebound in Australia’s property markets – that’s the view from economists and the industry following Labor’s failure to win the election and implement changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts. Goldman Sachs economists are forecasting a “moderate positive shock to sentiment in the corporate sector and a more meaningful one in the housing sector”.
The new Labor leader:
After six years as leader, Bill Shorten’s resignation now provides the opportunity for new Labor leadership to take the party into the future. Senior frontbencher Anthony Albanese on Sunday announced that he will run for the party’s leadership. Mr Albanese faces at least one challenger for the position with shadow treasury spokesman Chris Bowen also expected run for the leadership.
Taxpayers – individuals & business:
Immediate tax relief will flow to low- and middle-income earners of up to $1,080 for single earners or up to $2,160 for dual income families. It is estimated that around 4.5 million individuals will receive the full benefit for the 2018-19 income year. In relation to businesses, the company tax rate will be lowered further to 25 per cent by 2021-22 (from 27.5%). Also, companies will have access to the instant asset write-off threshold which will be increased to $30,000. This tax relief is aimed at small and medium-sized companies with an annual turnover of less than $50 million.
Mr Shorten announced on Saturday night that he was stepping down as Labor leader when he conceded his party had lost the election. On Sunday afternoon he asked the party’s national secretary to convene a meeting of the national executive to start the new leadership process.
The Labor Party:
Due to Bill Shorten’s unpopularity outside of the party, many in Labor will be asking the ‘what if’ question that if they had a more popular leader as the front man – namely Anthony Albanese – would they find themselves in power?
The Federal Election Polls:
According to nearly all opinion polls, a Labor victory was pretty much a certainty. So how did the polls get it so spectacularly wrong? It could have been due to poorly selecting whose opinion to ask, people not being truthful or possibly changing their mind at the last minute. In the modern and mobile world we live in, the old idea of ringing someone on the landline to ask who they’ll vote for is redundant. Especially given the rise of social media which has provided a platform for many to share their opinions much more freely.
The man who spent around $60 million on this election failed on his bid to pick up any seats in the parliament. Putting aside the United Australia Party’s campaign strategy, it shows that nobody should be able to buy their way into parliament and that it takes more than just money to acquire the Australian people’s trust and confidence.
For now, it’s business as usual. Irrespective of who came out of the weekend’s election as Prime Minister, they and their party have their hands full. The economic outlook appears far from easy with wages failing to keep pace with inflation, the pressure to deliver a surplus budget, higher unemployment, possible rate cuts and slower economic growth to name a few; all weighing on the elected governments fiscal plans. But the challenges are not just in the economy, the Australian people are yearning for a true leader with a united party behind who can tackle issues such as climate change, rising homelessness, mental health, unaffordable childcare for many hard-working Australian families as well as a gender pay gap which puts us at 39th position on the world rankings.
My advice is to not allow these uncertain times in which we live in to prevent you from planning for your own future. By blocking out the noise, doing good for others along the way, keeping it simple and remembering what you’re planning for, anything is achievable – just ask ScoMo.
Hewison Private Wealth is a Melbourne based independent financial planning firm. Our financial advisers are highly qualified wealth managers and specialise in self managed super funds (SMSF), financial planning, retirement planning advice and investment portfolio management. If you would like to speak to a financial adviser on how you can secure your financial future please contact us 03 8548 4800, email email@example.com or visit www.hewison.com.auPlease note: The advice provided above is general information only and individuals should seek specialised advice from a qualified financial advisor. The views in this blog are those of the individual and may not represent the general opinion of the firm. Please contact Hewison Private Wealth for more information.